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ISI Emerging Markets Group Launches Foresight 2023 Report


Highlight on Alternative Data – What to Know About the Economy Right Now

MUMBAI, India, Jan. 30, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — ISI Emerging Markets Group’s Foresight report provides a comprehensive insight into the challenges and opportunities the world will face in 2023. The post-pandemic recovery proved short-lived as shocks in 2022 re-opened economic wounds that had only partially healed. The world is entering 2023 in an environment of galloping inflation, looming recession, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Existing challenges and new crises are tipping the world into yet another big slowdown with a third of the global economy is poised to contract amid shrinking real incomes and rising prices. For many 2023 will feel like a recession. Yet, not all is doom and gloom. COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which hurt global growth so much, have once again highlighted the need for greater energy diversification, enabling governments and companies around the world to accelerate their efforts towards a net-zero economy.

The Foresight highlights how the need for information and data has grown manifold with each subsequent economic crisis, and because of which, policymakers, macroeconomists, and investment professionals are increasingly exploring alternative forms of data to stay abreast of the economic situation.

Now the question is, what is alternative data?

Traditional economic data consists of national accounts, price indices, industrial production, and retail sales, amongst others. Alternative data, such as credit card transactions, luminescence from nightlights, web-scraped data, mobility data, and daily retail prices, to name but a few, are not direct measures, but are strongly correlated with direct measures and are available in a timely manner. Besides these, there is also an influx of data from statistical models which predict the real-time GDP or inflation, called nowcasts. The alternative data’s primary role is to obtain timelier information about a particular company, a sector, or even the whole economy since traditional economic indicators take considerable time to be released. It should also be noted that high-frequency data, i.e., data that is released more frequently than once a month, should not be synonymous with alternative data. There are indeed overlaps between both – for example, weekly motor vehicle registration data. Alternative data has been gaining popularity over the last decade, but it was the COVID-19 pandemic that really highlighted the need for timely and reliable statistics. As the challenges to global economy rise, the future seems more and more uncertain, which in turn has heightened the demand for more real-time data.

In the case of India, alternative data can plug the gaps for segments which have little or low-frequency data. For example, in absence of monthly employment numbers from the government, one can rely on alternative indicators such as Naukri JobSpeak Index, and Monster Employment Index that showcase the status of formal employment in India. Consumption is yet another segment which can be indicated by motor vehicle registrations and card transactions, which are available at a weekly and daily frequencies, respectively. The 4-week moving average of the former shows that registrations peaked at the end of November 2022 and have since climbed broadly downwards. Debit card transactions and prepaid payments also corroborate that consumer demand in India is moderating.

About ISI Emerging Markets Group

ISI Emerging Markets Group incorporates CEIC, EMIS and REDD Intelligence, renowned globally as the leading providers of data, analysis and research for the world’s fastest growing and highest potential countries. For over 25 years, our businesses have gone out of their way to gather the very best data and analysis available for emerging markets. We believe we have a unique model that relies on local expertise and relationships, a quality assurance process that is second to none and the implementation of leading technology to deliver information in the ways our customers need it.

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About CEIC

Founded in 1992 by a team of expert economists and analysts, CEIC Data provides the most expansive and accurate data insights into both developed and developing markets. With our local experts on the ground in more than 18 countries, we are the service of choice for economic and investment research by economists, analysts, investors, corporations, and universities around the world.

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About EMIS

EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, company intelligence and more for over 200 markets. Our information service provides a unique blend of analysis, data and news on companies, industries and countries. We partner with the most renowned industry research firms and the most authoritative news providers, combining this content with our own company and M&A and industry research to offer a multi-faceted view of each emerging market. EMIS employs 300 people in 18 countries around the world, providing intelligence to nearly 2,000 clients. EMIS is part of the ISI Emerging Markets Group, which has been in the business of providing information on the high growth markets for over 30 years.

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About REDD

REDD (Risk Event-Driven and Distressed) is an online information platform that provides intelligence and data on emerging market corporates. The service allows asset managers and advisors to assess risks, track potential market-moving events and identify trading or business opportunities in the distressed and high yield markets via a suite of web-based and mobile solutions.

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